Good morning.

To continue the analysis of what makes up “good” companies (anything that has done a 300% in the last three years) I am going to begin with general metrics like P/S, EV/Revenue, Revenue Growth, Market Cap across the tags and market cap.
This will allow us to answer

  • Do most of these mutlibaggers make it from steady growth or catalyst events?

  • Is there a single factor that predicts success across all companies?

  • Do different metrics affect our segmentations differently?

The largest metric across all general metrics was company size which intuitively makes sense (its easier for a $30M company to become a $300M than $300M to $3B). However this is only a moderate correlation.

Across the different sectors we start to see a story play out with some strong correlations.

What we find is that within the Mining sector it actually matters less if you are making sales. I suppose this tracks with the broad makeup of winners within mining being more speculative plays as opposed to Tech where the key defining factor is fundamentally expansion and aggressively dominating a niche.

Within healthcare we have a deviation as well where the better performing companies tend to be larger, and be more correlated with a starting enterprise value than anything else. Perhaps achieving a moat is one of the driving factors.

Looking across the different metrics I also found that P/S and EV/Rev does not really matter.

Another strange fact here is that revenue growth was not correlated or only weakly correlated with higher returns. The only real metric to consider for tech was the P/S ratio.

So what did we learn?
With a general analysis (which I would like to caveat is only scratching the surface).

  1. The majority of gains are in finding high quality small caps

  2. Tech is about achieving distribution and product market fit (as a founder/ software engineer this always hits home). The key here is new shiny tech can be enticing but its always about the ability to solve a problem and get it in the hands of customers.

  3. Mining multi baggers are primarily speculative (in the small cap space).

From here there is much more to look at. Next up I’ll be analyzing the balance sheets, cash flow and income statements across the same segments. After that I consider a lot of the low hanging fruit done we can look at management effectiveness. Some strategies I’m considering for this is:

  1. Does management experience matter? (years in the field).

  2. Did they move up the ranks? its all well and good being in a field for 10 years but if you stayed relatively stagnant and then made it on to a management position does that tell us something about your effectiveness?

  3. Does connectedness matter? Is management connected with many other people in the field

I may reach the limit of what I can actually get data wise but we will see.

If you’re interested in the underlying data get in touch and I’ll share it.

Here are the market updates for Friday.

📊 A$129.4M raised across 10 deals | 2 sectors | Market sentiment: Mixed (-2.64% avg) | Guidance changes: Upgraded

Profit Guidance Updates

Energy Action Limited (EAX) Guidance Upgrade
$2.03M NPAT
Market Cap: $13.83M 0.0% ●
Energy Services Cost Management
FY25 NPAT: $2.03M (up from $0.58M)
Growth: +247% YoY
Volume Interest: 1.52x (above average)
Key Drivers: Cost management and operational efficiencies
Standout Metric: NPAT up 247% to $2.03M despite neutral price reaction

Major Capital Raisings

WA1 Resources Ltd (WA1) Placement
$100.0M
Market Cap: $1.33B -2.13% ●
Mining Mineral Exploration Western Australia
Lead Managers: Canaccord Genuity, Argonaut Securities
Premium/Discount: 9.4% discount to VWAP
Volume Interest: 0.48x (low)
Use of Funds: Luni Niobium Project development, infrastructure, exploration
Standout Metric: Will hold ~A$168M cash post-placement (12.6% of market cap)
Falcon Metals Limited (FAL) Placement
$20.0M
Market Cap: $111.9M -4.55% ●
Mining Gold Exploration
Investors: Global institutions (NA, EU, AU)
Premium/Discount: 9.5% discount to market
Volume Interest: 0.55x (normal)
Use of Funds: Blue Moon Prospect exploration, working capital
Standout Metric: Oversubscribed placement; $27.8M cash post-settlement (24.9% of market cap)
Siren Gold Limited (SNG) Placement
$4.0M
Market Cap: $12.3M 0.0% ●
Mining Gold New Zealand
Lead Managers: Evolution Capital, Prenzler Group
Structure: 80m shares + 1:2 attaching options
Volume Interest: 0.85x (normal)
Use of Funds: Sams Creek drilling, Langdons/Queen Charlotte sampling
Standout Metric: 34.26m shares require shareholder approval (42.9% of placement)
Magnetite Mines Limited (MGT) Rights Issue
Up to $2.65M
Market Cap: $8.5M +1.41% ●
Mining Iron Ore High Grade
Underwriter: Mahe Capital
Premium/Discount: 25-30% discount
Structure: 1:3 rights + 1:1 options
Key Feature: Only positive price reaction (+1.41%) among mining raises
Standout Metric: Partially underwritten to $500k (18.9% of target)
Kingfisher Mining Limited (KFM) Entitlement Offer
Up to $1.33M
Market Cap: $4.9M -13.64% ●
Mining Copper Gold
Structure: 1:2 entitlement + 1:2 options
Volume Interest: 1.78x (above avg)
Notable: Strongest negative reaction (-13.64%)
Key Insight: Highest volume interest (1.78x) but largest price drop
Standout Metric: Significant disconnect between volume (1.78x) and price reaction (-13.64%)
Evolution Energy Minerals (EV1) Entitlement Offer
Up to $1.45M
Market Cap: $4.7M -7.14% ●
Mining Graphite Green Economy
Key Shareholder: ARCH (25% stake) taking full allocation
Volume Interest: 1.63x (above avg)
Structure: 2:5 rights + 1:2 options
Key Feature: Largest shareholder participation confirmed
Standout Metric: ARCH's full participation despite -7.14% price reaction

Strategic Investments & Smaller Rounds

Terrain Minerals Limited (TMX) Shortfall Offer
$0.15M
Market Cap: $6.3M 0.0% ●
Mining Rare Earths Lithium
Status: Partially taken up ($150k raised)
Shortfall: $823k remaining (deadline 17 Sep)
Volume Interest: 0.25x (low)
Structure: Non-renounceable rights + 1:1 options
Standout Metric: 84.6% shortfall remaining despite neutral price reaction
Carbine Resources Limited (CRB) Placement
Multiple Issues
Market Cap: $4.0M 0.0% ●
Mining Silica Glass Manufacturing
Structure: Multiple share issues (>100m shares)
Investors: 6466 Investments, Taylor Collison
Volume Interest: 0.10x (very low)
Use of Funds: Muchea & Down South Silica Projects
Standout Metric: Multiple share issues totaling >100m shares at $0.003
Mount Ridley Mines Ltd (MRD) Placement + EO
$0.23M (placement)
Market Cap: $2.3M 0.0% ●
Mining Rare Earths Exploration
Structure: Placement + 1:3 entitlement offer
Volume Interest: 1.20x (above avg)
Status: $233k placement announced
Use of Funds: Work programs, new project review
Standout Metric: Highest market cap ratio (10.0%) for placement amount
HITIQ Limited (HIQ) Shortfall Offer
$0.07M
Market Cap: $9.2M 0.0% ●
Technology Sports Tech Head Impact
Total Raised: $2.16M (including shortfall)
Volume Interest: 0.74x (normal)
Status: Discussions for remaining shortfall
Key Feature: Only technology sector deal (10% of total)
Standout Metric: $2.16M total raised (23.5% of market cap)
Thanks for reading Capital Signal
Mining dominated (90%) with average -2.64% price reaction | All offerings at discount

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