I'm in a rush this morning I’ll be posting the next installments of the weekly deal flow and analysis of multi baggers on Monday.
May do an early post on X/Linkedin.
Happy Friday!!
📊 A$3.55B raised across 11 deals | 5 sectors | Market sentiment: Mixed | Guidance changes: 1 down / 1 up
Profit Guidance Updates
Qube Holdings (QUB)
Guidance Downgrade
$127.6M Impairment
Market Cap: $7.71B +0.69% ●
$127.6M Impairment
Market Cap: $7.71B +0.69% ●
Impact: Statutory NPAT reduced by $127.6M
Reason: MITCo investment written down to nil
Outlook: "Very low current volumes with no expectation of material improvement"
Reason: MITCo investment written down to nil
Outlook: "Very low current volumes with no expectation of material improvement"
Key Driver: Weak medium-to-long-term volume outlook for Moorebank Interstate Rail Terminal
Standout Metric: MITCo carrying value reduced from $127.6M to $0 (100% impairment)
Servcorp (SRV)
Guidance Upgrade
$72.0M-$76.0M NPBIT
Market Cap: $594.6M -0.83% ●
$72.0M-$76.0M NPBIT
Market Cap: $594.6M -0.83% ●
Period: FY26 (First Guidance)
Previous: $69.1M NPBIT (FY25)
Growth: +4.3% to +10.0% YoY
Previous: $69.1M NPBIT (FY25)
Growth: +4.3% to +10.0% YoY
Key Drivers: Strong FY25 performance (23% YoY growth) and stable global economic conditions
Standout Metric: 23% YoY NPBIT growth in FY25 ($69.1M) with midline guidance +7% for FY26
Major Capital Raisings
NEXTDC (NXT)
Debt Facility
$3.5B
Market Cap: $9.34B Volume: 0.74x -1.22% ●
$3.5B
Market Cap: $9.34B Volume: 0.74x -1.22% ●
Lead Arrangers: ANZ, CBA, MUFG, NAB, RBC, HSBC
Facility Size: $3.5B (up from $2.2B)
Terms: Lower margin than 2024 refinancing, WAML 5.6 years
Facility Size: $3.5B (up from $2.2B)
Terms: Lower margin than 2024 refinancing, WAML 5.6 years
Use of Funds: Deliver contracted capacity pipeline and expand data centre footprint for AI/cloud infrastructure
Key Metric: WAML extended from 5.2 to 5.6 years; $5.5B pro forma liquidity
Centaurus Metals (CTM)
Placement + SPP
$20M
Market Cap: $223.5M Volume: 0.92x +4.65% ●
$20M
Market Cap: $223.5M Volume: 0.92x +4.65% ●
Issue Price: $0.36 (firm placement)
Structure: 1 free option per 2 shares ($0.50 until Nov 2027)
Advisors: Cadence Advisory (financial), King & Wood Mallesons (legal)
Structure: 1 free option per 2 shares ($0.50 until Nov 2027)
Advisors: Cadence Advisory (financial), King & Wood Mallesons (legal)
Use of Funds: Advance Jaguar Nickel Project development and Boi Novo Copper exploration
Key Metric: Jaguar to produce 22,600tpa at first quartile AISC of US$4.43/lb
Strategic Investments & Smaller Rounds
Liontown Resources (LTR)
SPP
Up to $20M
Market Cap: $2.57B Volume: 1.48x -1.12% ●
Up to $20M
Market Cap: $2.57B Volume: 1.48x -1.12% ●
Discount: 13.6% to market ($0.73 vs $0.845)
Context: Part of $316M capital raising ($266M placement + $50M conditional)
Status: Non-underwritten, still open
Context: Part of $316M capital raising ($266M placement + $50M conditional)
Status: Non-underwritten, still open
Use of Funds: Fortify balance sheet during low lithium prices, support Kathleen Valley Lithium Operation
Key Metric: 10.4% discount to 5-day VWAP; strategic buffer for commodity cycle
ikeGPS Group (IKE)
SPP
$8.28M
Market Cap: $167.1M Volume: 2.23x 0.0% ●
$8.28M
Market Cap: $167.1M Volume: 2.23x 0.0% ●
Result: 10,220,725 shares at A$0.81/NZ$0.88
Take-up: 5.57% of eligible shareholders
Status: Completed (13 Aug 2025)
Take-up: 5.57% of eligible shareholders
Status: Completed (13 Aug 2025)
Use of Funds: General corporate purposes
Key Metric: 2.23x volume surge despite neutral price reaction
Fat Prophets (FPC)
SPP
Up to $30k/shareholder
Market Cap: $34.4M Volume: 1.54x +1.61% ●
Up to $30k/shareholder
Market Cap: $34.4M Volume: 1.54x +1.61% ●
Discount: 2% to 5-day VWAP
Structure: Lower of $1.30 or 5-day VWAP less 2%
Status: Still open
Structure: Lower of $1.30 or 5-day VWAP less 2%
Status: Still open
Use of Funds: Invest per FPC's contrarian strategy; increase trading liquidity
Key Metric: 1.54x volume with positive price reaction despite small cap size
Evolution Energy (EV1)
Entitlement Offer
$500k (underwritten)
Market Cap: $4.71M Volume: 1.63x -7.14% ●
$500k (underwritten)
Market Cap: $4.71M Volume: 1.63x -7.14% ●
Structure: 2 for 5 renounceable rights ($0.01/share)
Options: 1 free option per share ($0.02 exercise)
Commitment: Chair/Exec Director to take up rights + $80k sub-underwriting
Options: 1 free option per share ($0.02 exercise)
Commitment: Chair/Exec Director to take up rights + $80k sub-underwriting
Use of Funds: Progress Chilalo Graphite Project, Chikundo Copper exploration, creditor payments
Key Metric: Management commitment amid 7.14% share price drop
RBR Group (RBR)
SPP
$261k
Market Cap: $3.12M Volume: 0.0x 0.0% ●
$261k
Market Cap: $3.12M Volume: 0.0x 0.0% ●
Result: $261k from 28 shareholders ($0.001/share)
Context: Oversubscribed SPP (target met)
Follow-on: CPS Capital to place remaining $329k shortfall
Context: Oversubscribed SPP (target met)
Follow-on: CPS Capital to place remaining $329k shortfall
Use of Funds: General working capital
Key Metric: Only deal showing clear oversubscription ($261k vs target)
Thrive Tribe (1TT)
Placement
$250k
Market Cap: $0.71M Volume: 5.2x +12.5% ●
$250k
Market Cap: $0.71M Volume: 5.2x +12.5% ●
Structure: $0.006322/share (20% discount)
Debt Conv.: $96,334 unsecured loans converted
Fees: 2% management + 4% capital raising
Debt Conv.: $96,334 unsecured loans converted
Fees: 2% management + 4% capital raising
Use of Funds: General working capital and placement costs
Key Metric: 5.2x volume surge with 12.5% price jump - highest reaction in sample
Carnegie Clean (CCE)
SPP
Open
Market Cap: $20.87M Volume: 0.83x +1.75% ●
Open
Market Cap: $20.87M Volume: 0.83x +1.75% ●
Context: European ocean energy investments >€60M in 2 years
Status: Still open (announced 12 Aug)
Quote: "Accelerate commercialisation of CETO and MoorPower technologies"
Status: Still open (announced 12 Aug)
Quote: "Accelerate commercialisation of CETO and MoorPower technologies"
Use of Funds: Accelerate commercialization of wave energy technologies
Key Metric: Positive market reaction amid growing global ocean energy investment
Helix Resources (HLX)
Rights Issue
Open
Market Cap: $6.73M Volume: 0.81x 0.0% ●
Open
Market Cap: $6.73M Volume: 0.81x 0.0% ●
Timing: Rights trading 14-27 Aug 2025
Status: Renounceable rights issue
Context: Neutral market reaction during rights period
Status: Renounceable rights issue
Context: Neutral market reaction during rights period
Use of Funds: Not specified in announcement
Key Metric: Typical rights issue pattern (neutral price reaction, normal volume)
Red Mountain (RMX)
Entitlement Issue
Up to $193k
Market Cap: $4.64M Volume: 1.26x 0.0% ●
Up to $193k
Market Cap: $4.64M Volume: 1.26x 0.0% ●
Structure: 1 RMXO Option per 3 Shares ($0.001/option)
Target: Up to $193,499
Status: Still open
Target: Up to $193,499
Status: Still open
Use of Funds: Not specified in announcement
Key Metric: 1.26x volume with neutral price reaction - typical microcap behavior
Thanks for reading Capital Signal
Volume analysis: 5 deals showed above-average volume (1.2x+), with 1TT leading at 5.2x normal
Volume analysis: 5 deals showed above-average volume (1.2x+), with 1TT leading at 5.2x normal