Capital Signal Week of January 23, 2026
UPDATE: Apologies for the double email but the first versions tables were illegible from the table styling. Anyway here is the fixed version.
Good Morning.
Last weeks email was missed as I’ve been making further refinements to the system. Be tuned for a methodology post at some point (or a longer methodology post). I also will try and include a running methodology section at the end of the email to keep you all in the loop of how its working and what its targeting.
I’ve primarily been building out a way to detect what news matters relative to the history of a company. This is quite a difficult problem and will likely take a substantial amount of tuning (after all you never really know if a signal is good moving forward only if it performed well in the past).
You’ll notice things are different fire me feedback how you like/dislike the new format. I suppose if you’ve been following since day one this is probably standard and you’re used to it I endeavor to commit to one format however and am pretty happy with the current version. The main changes are building context and the history of what has happened into the stock. This will eventually make it much easier to assess what a signal means relative to the stock so it will be easier to justify spending our attention on any given holder movement, capital raise or guidance update and filter out noise.
As always reach out to me on Twitter/X, Linkedin or just reply to the email if you’d like to get in touch. If you’re enjoying the newsletter share it around.
FRM (Farm Pride Foods) Mcap: $47M
Three holders all accumulated in the same week. The stock is at its 52-week low.
The Setup
Farm Pride Foods is a $47M egg producer trading at exactly its 52-week low. In the span of three days last week, three separate holders filed substantial holding notices all buying.
The Activity (Jan 16-19, 2026)
Date | Holder | Action | Previous | New Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jan 19 | Spiros Michael | ENTRY | — | 6.0% |
Jan 16 | Dr Philip Currie | INCREASE | 14.7% | 17.1% |
Jan 16 | Bait of Bretts (Willow Investments) | INCREASE | 29.6% | 32.6% |
Combined ownership: 55.7% over half the company across three holders, all adding in the same week.
The Price
$0.20 sitting at near its mid 52-week range ($0.12 - $0.38).
What the Data Shows
Bait of Bretts added 3 percentage points (29.6% → 32.6%) that's real money at these levels
Dr Currie added 2.4 points (14.7% → 17.1%)
Spiros Michael is a fresh entry at 6.0%
Historical backtest: Insider entries near 52-week lows have a 62% win rate with +12.3% average return over 90 days.
UPDATE: MFD (Mayfield Childcare) Mcap: $38M
The board rejected the bid. The market didn't care.
The system flagged MFD two weeks ago when the bid launched (We caught it in the last email we sent).
What Happened
On January 20, Mayfield's board issued its Target's Statement: unanimous recommendation to REJECT Embark's $0.50 bid.
How the Market Reacted
Date | Price | Event |
|---|---|---|
Jan 19 | $0.485 | Day before rejection |
Jan 20 | $0.495 | Board rejects bid stock goes UP |
Jan 21 | $0.500 | Hits bid price exactly |
Jan 22 | $0.490 | Latest |
The stock rallied on the rejection. The market is calling BS on the board.
Why This Matters
The spread math:
Bid price: $0.50
Current price: $0.49
Spread: 2%
Implied completion probability: ~98%
The market is saying: "We don't care what the board recommends. This deal is happening."
The Ownership Standoff
Holder | Stake | Position |
|---|---|---|
Genius Education | 30.6% | Hasn't moved since May 2025 (sold down from 34.2%) |
Embark (Bidder) | 19.9% | Built stake Oct 2025, launched bid Nov 2025 |
Ross Family | 8.0% | Added in Aug 2025 |
Embark needs Genius to tender. Genius hasn't filed anything since May. The question: Is Genius holding out for a bump, or will they tender at $0.50?
Timeline
Offer closes: March 5, 2026
No competing bid has emerged
Board rejection appears to be noise
WATCHING: VVA (Viva Leisure) Mcap: $147M
New holder takes 7.5% as another exits.
The Move (Jan 22)
Holder | Action | Stake |
|---|---|---|
CPG Investments Group | ENTRY | 7.5% |
Capital Property Corp | EXIT | 10.7% → 4.0% |
Same day filing. The names are similar (CPG vs Capital Property Corp). This could be entity restructuring rather than genuine change of control.
The Business
Viva Leisure operates gyms and fitness centers. Founder-led (Harry Konstantinou since 2015). Trading mid-range at $1.62.
Conviction: Low monitoring for now.
WEEKLY SIGNAL SUMMARY
High Conviction
Date | Symbol | MCap | Type | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jan 19 | FRM | $47M | Holder | 3 holders accumulating at 52w low |
Jan 22 | GNP | $1.3B | Guidance | EBITDA upgraded FY26 |
Jan 21 | GNE | $2.3B | Guidance | EBITDA +7.4% |
Jan 21 | SRV | $764M | Guidance | NPBIT +10.8% |
Updates
Symbol | MCap | Status |
|---|---|---|
MFD | $38M | Board rejected $0.50 bid market ignores, trades at $0.49 |
Watch List
Symbol | MCap | Signal |
|---|---|---|
VVA | $147M | New 7.5% holder (possible entity restructure) |
BRG | $4.4B | 2 active funds entering |
AEL | $864M | 4 holders entering |
SYSTEM NOTE: MFD Signal Validation
We flagged MFD two weeks ago when the bid launched. This week's data shows:
Price reaction to board rejection (Jan 20):
Before rejection: $0.485
Board rejects: $0.495 (+2%)
Next day: $0.500 (hits bid)
The system caught the signal. The market confirmed the thesis board recommendations are noise when the ownership math doesn't support rejection.
METHODOLOGY
These signals are gathered from the last 5 years and then backtested to assess how they perform. For the purposes of the news I like to keep all signals even if they don’t backtest well as they can reveal interesting dynamics within companies, work as a combination with other signals or simply just make for a good story.
Also worth of note the Avg return is over a 30 day period. So in the backtests after the signal fires the win rate is the probability and the average return afterwards.
Data Coverage
Data Type | Events Tracked | Classification |
|---|---|---|
Holder filings | 9,715 | 7 holder types (Activist, Strategic, Insider, Active Fund, etc.) |
M&A events | 19,306 | 11 event types (NBIP, Scheme, Takeover, etc.) |
State/Guidance | 3,716 | Results, guidance, trading updates, capital raises |
Director changes | 9,840 | Appointments, resignations, retirements |
Signal Performance (Backtested 2021-2025)
Positive Signals:
Signal | Conviction | Win Rate | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|
Holder Entry (quality holder) | HIGH | 62% | +12.3% |
Capitulation (>40% down + quality fund) | HIGH | 70% | +7.6% |
Breakout (98%+ of 52w high, 5x vol) | HIGH | 68% | +7.4% |
Trading Update (tailwind + margin expanding) | HIGH | 64% | +5.1% |
Guidance Upgrade | STANDARD | 60% | +5.3% |
Multiple holder entries → takeover (18mo) | — | 19% | +77% |
M&A Completion Rates:
Deal Type | Completion Rate |
|---|---|
Formal Takeover | 90% |
Scheme of Arrangement | 83% |
NBIP (indicative) | 74% |
Warning Signals (avoid):
Signal | Win Rate | Note |
|---|---|---|
Director exodus (5+ in 90 days) | 10% | Strong sell signal |
Small cap deal withdrawal | 38% | Underperforms |
Small cap capitulation | 39% | Unlike large caps |
Historical backtest (2021-2025):
Signal | Win Rate | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|
Insider entry at 52w low | 62% | +12.3% |
Guidance upgrade | 60% | +5.3% |
Multiple entries → takeover (18mo) | 19% | +77% |
This is not financial advice. Do your own research.
Cheers
Damon